On August 16, the "2024 TOPCon Solar Cell Technology Development Trend Seminar" was held in Shanghai. The conference was hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, and invited industry authorities, research institutions, photovoltaic power design institutes, and representatives of photovoltaic companies to deeply analyze the development trends and paths of TOPCon technology, and further promote the original innovation and application of battery technology. Dr. Ouyang Zi, Chief Technology Officer of JA Solar Technology, was invited to attend the meeting and held dialogues with several CTOs of TOPCon industrialization leading companies to jointly interpret the underlying advantages and future forms of TOPCon technology.

Ouyang Zi said that a third-party report showed that the overall TOPCon capacity, including the capacity under construction, is expected to approach 900GW, which is enough to meet most of the market demand in the next five years; at the same time, the report predicts that the market share of TOPCon technology based on the estimated shipment volume of TOPCon modules will remain at around 70%-80% in the next five years.

There are two underlying advantages that have made TOPCon technology the absolute mainstream of the photovoltaic panel industry. On the one hand, theoretically speaking, the key factors that need to be considered in battery design are the balance between light absorption, passivation, and multi-carrier transmission. As far as the currently known field is concerned, the system of contact passivation plus poly is the optimal mass production solution, and the TOPCon technology route itself is excellent enough.

On the other hand, the development of photovoltaic mass production technology is a combination of "process + equipment + material". From PERC to TOPCon, the overall change in manufacturing process and equipment does not exceed 30%, but it can greatly improve the conversion efficiency, and the cost performance is extremely high. After conquering key technologies such as boron diffusion and poly deposition, the rapid development of TOPCon became a matter of course, and it naturally became the first choice for leading companies.

At present, the industry should have a consensus on the mainstream status of TOPCon technology for about five years. TOPCon technology is not static. The introduction of new equipment and new materials, the optimization of battery structure and process can all enable the battery efficiency to be continuously improved. For example, metallization, as a key step from battery to component, is very important. As a high-temperature system, TOPCon has more metallization paths to choose from than heterojunction, and has greater potential for innovation and efficiency improvement.

Compared with BC, TOPCon is more suitable as the bottom cell of the stacked cell. In the more distant future, the "TOPCon+perovskite" stacked cell may lead the industry into the era of mass production of "30%+efficiency", and its vitality may far exceed five years.

For example, in July this year, in the "Solar Cell Efficiency Record Table" led by Professor Martin Green of the University of New South Wales, Australia, JA Solar Technology topped the "Mass Production Size TOPCon Cell Efficiency Category" with its mass production cell size, breaking the world record. This record was included in the certification results of the Hamelin Institute for Solar Energy Research (ISFH) in Germany.

Today, ISFH has given the latest efficiency certification results for JA Solar Technology's mass production size cells. This result is further improved compared to the previous certification efficiency. It has been included in the "2024 Solar Cell China Highest Efficiency" record by the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society. The efficiency breakthrough of mass production size cells is the most difficult. JA Solar Technology continues to create new records in mass production size cells, which is not only a reflection of its own R&D strength, but also proves the growth potential of TOPCon technology.

In addition, TOPCon technology is still a more suitable technical route for full-scene applications. At present, the global annual installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has reached hundreds of gigawatts, and the market is increasingly focusing on diverse solutions for different scenarios. It is no longer possible to "cure all diseases with one good prescription". Based on the high efficiency and low cost brought by the scale effect of the TOPCon technology industry, products can achieve rapid response and iteration for different application scenarios. For example, JA Solar Technology has launched corresponding component solutions based on TOPCon technology products for different climate conditions such as deserts, hot and humid weather, plateaus and extreme cold. On the other hand, JA Solar also provides customized products based on TOPCon technology for different regions and scenarios, such as pile-based and floating offshore photovoltaic solutions, single-glass and anti-dust roof photovoltaic solutions, and anti-glare solutions, etc., to meet different market needs.